Photo : REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko
08 August 2022, Monday| NIAS Europe Daily Brief #274
War in Ukraine: Day 164 & 165
By Rishma Banerjee and Emmanuel Royan
War on the Ground
On 07 August, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine will not cooperate for negotiation or bilateral talks if Russia decides to carry out referendums in the occupied areas in Ukraine. He reiterated: "Our country's position remains what it always has been. We will give up nothing of what is ours." Zelenskyy mentioned that the shelling at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant and spoke to European Council Charles Michel about the same and also urged the international community for a “principled response” to the same. Both Ukraine and Russia are exchanging blame over the shelling at the plant. According to Energoatom (Nuclear power company), Russia’s shelling has seriously damaged a station containing nitrogen and oxygen, and an auxiliary building, and also forced the shutdown of one of the reactors.
On the same day, Russia’s forces launched attacks in the South Buh, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, and Sloviansk directions. However, Ukraine’s forces were able to neautralise the threats in these regions. According to the General Staff of Ukraine, Russia is concentrating their efforts in eastern Ukraine, and consolidating their control over Kherson, parts of Kharkiv, Zaphorizhzhya and Mykolaiv regions.
On 07 August, Ukraine’s general staff reported on Russia’s continued supply of forces, technology and equipment to Belarus’s air defence. Russia was observed to have used radio-electronic warfare to cause trouble to the aerial inspection in southern and eastern regions of Ukraine. The general staff added: “Ukrainian aviation and missile and artillery units continue to fire at concentrations of manpower, military equipment of Russian occupiers, and warehouses with ammunition.”
On 06 August, Zelenskyy created an ad hoc working group to be chaired by the head of the president’s office, Andriy Yermak, consisting of representatives from the cabinet ministries, Ukrainian and foreign specialists on international law. The commission will develop and implement the compensation mechanism by considering applications seeking for damages caused by the war.
Also on 06 August, Ukriane’s digital transformation ministry reported that over 344,000 Ukrainians were using the eVorog chatbot. The application was designed to help Ukraine’s army destroy Russia’s military equipment and resources. According to the ministry, in July more than 2000 tips were received on the chatbot about potential enemy collaborators, which were then verified and sent to the Security Service of Ukraine.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 07 August, Russia’s Energodar’s military-civilian administration said that the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant was shelled by Ukraine’s troops. Ukraine’s units allegedly used a 220 millimeter rocker of the Uragan multiple rocket launching system. In the press release, the administration mentioned that they the strike damaged a part of a storage facility and a computer-assistance monitoring station.
On 05 August, Russia’s delegation to the UN Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference, Andrey Belousov said that the allegations against Russia about their possibility of using nuclear weapons is “untenable and baseless.” He referred to Russia’s doctrinal guidelines and said that hypothetically nuclear weapons can only be used under emergency situations like as a response to weapons of mass destruction or where the existence of the state is threatened. Belousov clarified that none of the hypothetical situations mentioned in their guidelines apply to the situation in Ukraine. He mentioned that warnings given so far about nuclear war voiced by Russia were directed against NATO members to deter further aggression by Western countries.
On 07 August, the Russian embassy in the US urged the media to stop spreading “Russophobic fabrications,” following the West’s accusation of Moscow attacking the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. On 05 August the embassy also condemned Kiev for launching artillery strikes near the power plant and the city of Energoday.
On 07 August, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin met the head of Chechnya republic, Ramzan Kadyrov following the discussions with Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip. Kadyrov stated that Russia appreciated the contribution of Chechen special forces during the operation in Ukraine. Putin acknowledged the growth of the republic and inquired on the investment opportunities for the development of a tourist destination.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 07 August, Turkey's defence ministry and Ukraine’s infrastructure minister, Aleksandr Kubrakov, reported that four ships left ports in Ukraine for inspection by the Joint Communication Centre at Istanbul. Three of them left from the Chornomorsk port and one from Odesa. Two ships are carrying corn to Turkey, one ship with sunflower oil is heading for Italy and the other the other one is transporting sunflower seeds to China.
On 07 August, the UK defense intelligence reported that Russia might have dismissed six commanders since the start of the war for their poor performance. general-colonel Aleksandr Zhuravlev who commanded the western region for five years was absent on Russia’s Navy Day in St Petersburg held on 31 July. He is likely to have been replaced by general-lieutenant Vladimir Kochetkov. The intelligence claims that the change is leadership is likely to impact Russia’s military performance against Ukraine.
On 06 August, Ukraine’s presidential advisor, Mykhaylo Podolyak thanked North Macedonia for the military aid and said: “No matter what the size of your country or the volume of GDP, it matters where your heart is.” North Macedonia will send supply soviet-era tanks and planes to Ukraine. North Macedonia’s defence ministry clarified that this decision does not violate the combat readiness of the country. It also mentioned that the tanks had originally been purchased from Ukraine in 2001, to fight against the ethnic insurgency launched by Albanians seeking greater autonomy in North Macedonia.
On 07 August, the US secretary of state visited South Africa by starting his three-nation tour of Africa. The move comes following Russia’s attempts to gain support from African countries. South Africa is neutral regarding the war in Ukraine and refusing to join the west to condemn Moscow for its aggressiveness.
On 06 August, the US defence ministry released a video of humanitarian aid cargo meant for Ukraine being loaded on an aircraft at Dover Air Force base in Delaware. The operation was conducted during a foreign military sales. In the the video, the ministry reaffirmed its “steadfast commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty & territorial integrity in support of a secure & prosperous Ukraine.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 07 August, Amnesty International said that it "deeply regrets the distress and anger” that their recent report has created. The report was released on 04 August and accused Ukraine's military of endangering civilians by setting up bases in schools and hospitals, and heavily populated residential areas. It also alleged that Ukrainian forces were violating international law by exposing civilians to Russia’s offensive. However, even though the organization stands by the findings in the report, it clarified that nothing justified Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
On the same day, the first ship carrying Ukraine’s grains under the deal between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN, was supposed to reach Lebanon. Data from Marine Traffic showed the Seirra Leone flagged ship off the Turkish coast. Though a new arrival date has not been announced, the vessel’s bill of lading expects the arrival date at Tripoli to be on 09 August. However, Lebanon’s transport, agriculture and economy ministers have said that they do not have any information on who will purchase the grains being carried by Razoni.
References
“Strikes badly damaged parts of Ukrianian nuclear plant,” Kyiv Post, 07 August 2022
“A principled response from the international community to the Russian strikes at the Zaporizhzhia NPP is needed right now - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 07 August 2022
“President holds meeting on compensating Ukraine for damage caused by Russia's aggression,” president.gov.ua, 07 August 2022
“Ukraine’s Armed Forces repulse enemy troops in four directions, neutralize recon group in Bakhmut direction,” Ukrinform, 07 August 2022
“No prospect of using nukes in Ukraine – Moscow,” RT, 05 August 2022
“Ukrainian troops make another strike on Zaporozhye NPP - city administration,” TASS, 07 August 2022
“Enemy-spotting chatbot in Ukraine boasts over 344,000 reports,” Ukrinform, 06 August 2022
“Russian puppet official in Ukraine’s Kherson assassinated,” Kyiv Post, 07 August 2022
“Four more cargo ships leave Ukrainian ports,” RT, 07 August 2022
“The Russian Embassy responded to accusations of attacks on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant,” lenta.ru, 08 August 2022
“Russian journalist detained in Kosovo released,” Interfax, 07 August 2022
“Putin met with Kadyrov after talks with Erdogan,” lenta.ru, 07 August 2022
“Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine,” Twitter, 07 August 2022
“Blinken lands in South Africa at start of Africa tour,” Deutsche Welle, 07 August 2022
“Ukraine says it will receive tanks, planes from North Macedonia,” Reuters, 06 August 2022
“US sends humanitarian aid cargo to Ukraine,” Ukrinform, 06 August 2022
“Amnesty regrets ‘distress’ caused by claims in Ukraine report,” The Guardian, 07 August 2022
“First Ukraine ship under grain deal will not dock in Lebanon on time,” Reuters, 07 August 2022
“Pope hails departure of Ukrainian grain ships as 'sign of hope',” Reuters, 07 August 2022
IN BRIEF
By Sai Pranav
FRANCE
Rescuers doubtful of the Beluga whale’s safe return due to its failing health
On 07 August, French rescuers and scientists were pessimistic about the return of the beluga whale to its arctic habitat from the river Seine. The whale was first sighted in the river Seine on 02 August 2022, 70 kilometers from north of Paris. The whale has visible signs of malnutrition and does not accept the food offered by the rescuers. The response to the rescuers trying to help the whale to swim to its territory has been poor from the mammal. Small spots have been sighted on the whale's skin, which made the officials conclude that it is either reacting to the freshwater of the Seine or is having its health decline slowly. The whale has been reported to behave jitterily by scientific observers after it is seen rising to the surface briefly and emitting fewer whale songs than expected. (Leo Sands and George Wright “France whale: Hopes fading for lost mammal stuck in River Seine,” BBC, 07 August 2022)
ITALY
Democratic Party-led left coalition collapsed as a centrist party withdraws
On 07 August, the Italian centrist party Azione decided to withdraw from the centre-left alliance headed by the Democratic Party. According to Carlo Calenda, the leader of the Azione party, the Democratic Party signed a separate electoral agreement with the radical left-wing party Sinistra Italiana and the green group Europa Verde was unacceptable to him. Both Sinistra Italiana and Europa Verde were the ones that did not support Mario Draghi, former prime minister. Calenda said that he doubts the left coalition will stand together for a longer duration with opposing ideals. The rift in the left had caused the right-wing coalition led by Giorgia Meloni's brothers of Italy to come on top in the recent polling's. (Angella Giuffrida, “Election boost for Italy’s far right as centre-left alliance collapses,” the Guardian, 07 August 2022)
REGIONAL
EU to look into the Airlines' complaints over compensation rules
On 05 August, the Czech presidency of the EU is planning to resuscitate the discussion on the EU's air travel compensation rules. The airlines are complaining about the unfair compensation to the consumers for more than three-hour delays in flights. According to the 2013 proposal, any five-hour delay with reasons for extraordinary circumstances will have the airline not pay out the compensation, though the meaning of extraordinary circumstances remains ambiguous. Airlines complained that the claims agencies take up a lot of their money by moving the consumer cases to court. Claims agencies were created mainly because the airlines didn't do their job of handling compensation suitably. The airline companies are also looking toward Sweden, which is next in line for the EU presidency, to sort the problem as consumer rights are important to the Nordic countries. (Mari Eccles, “Under-pressure airlines push for end to big payouts for delayed passengers,” POLITICO, 05 August 2022)
Fall in the Rhine water levels causes problems for EU shipping
On 07 August, it is estimated that the water levels on the Rhine are extremely low to transport materials across the river due to less rainfall this year. Europe's major inland river that connects major countries such as Germany, France and Switzerland is having the problem of lower levels of water which poses a problem to the EU's plans to increase goods transportation through waterways and decrease the usage of costly and inefficient land movement. The low water level also threatens the transportation of coal to the power plants thus reducing its energy outputs in Germany. The decline in water level also decreased industrial activities because of transportation problems. Experts say that climate change had caused the plunge in the water levels of the Rhine this summer as well as the high-level last year. (Joshua Posaner and Hanne Cokelaere, "Deep trouble for EU shipping push as Rhine River runs dry,” POLITICO, 07 August 2022)
Polish pilgrims die in Croatia while travelling to Bosnia
On 06 August, 12 Polish pilgrims died in an accident in Croatia. The bus carrying the pilgrims, organized by the Brotherhood of St. Joseph Catholic group, had veered off the road while travelling to Medjugorje, a Catholic shrine in Bosnia, which ended up in a ditch. 32 survived the accident of which 19 are in critical condition. Warsaw prosecutors were ordered to launch an investigation by Poland's justice minister and prosecutor general. Croatia's prime minister Andrej Plenkovic expressed his condolences to the family of the victims of the tragedy. (“Adam Easton and Elsa Maishman, “Croatia bus crash: Twelve Polish pilgrims killed and 32 injured, BBC, 07 August 2022)